Counting to zero

List of Tory MPs who have, as of tonight, said, or strongly hinted, they will vote against Withdrawal Agreement in whatever form it is present.

1. DD
2. Andrea Jenkyns
3. Peter Bone
4. Conor Burns
5. Bernard Jenkins
6. Bill Cash
7. Steve Baker
8. Charlie Elphike
9. Stewart Jackson
10. BJ
11. JRM
12. IDS
13. Mark Francois
14. John Redwood 
15. Sarah Woolaston
16. Justine Greening
17. Jo Johnson

Plus Kate Hoey, one of the Labour MPs who the PM might expect to rebel, has come out strongly against. 

Only 7 Labour MPs voted with the Government last year. 

1. Ronnie Campbell
2. Frank Field
3. Kelvin Hopkins
4. John Mann
5. Dennis Skinner
6. Graham Stringer
7. Kate Hoey

If the DUP abstain, the only conceivable route to a Parliamentary Majority for the PM is for most of those 17 to abstain. If they vote against (or most of them do), it can't pass. If the DUP vote against, it can't pass.

For: 315 - 17 (and counting) + 6 (maybe) = 304

I could imagine a situation in which Corbyn whipped Labour to abstain, given that he wants Brexit to happen. But he wants a General Election to happen far more than he wants Brexit, and the only possible route to a GE is for the Government to collapse over Brexit. 

Against: 258 (including Field) - 7 (maybe) + 35 (SNP) + 12 (LD) + 1 (Green) = 298 

Add 10 DUP to that number and/or 7 rabid Brexiteers and/or 7 Tory 'Remoaners' and the deal falls.

How does PM secure DUP vote? And even if she can, can she secure enough Labour rebels to offset inevitable defections by some or all of the 17 listed above, plus others who are less media savvy or just quieter? 

Of course, this is all rather irrelevant if she can't get the deal past the Cabinet tomorrow.