Will we make it?

Reading the LRB (A review of Lovelock's new book Novacene) I was struck by the phrase "continued human survival". The words of the reviewer, not Lovelock, though Lovelock appears to believe that climate change will lead to human extinction. 

The idea that climate change will lead to human extinction is one that I find quite odd, and suggests a misunderstanding of both humans, and the earth's climate. We aren't going to turn into Venus in the short-term. 'Short-term' in geological time, i.e. a long, long time so far as humans are concerned.

So, the surface of the earth will support the growth of plants. And while there is a lot of sea-level rise bound up in the ice caps, which will melt, perhaps entirely, due to anthropogenic climate change, this melting will happen on fast geological time-scales, but relatively slowly on human timescales. 1000s of years. And while very high levels of sea-level rise are clearly bad for countries with a coastline -- you can look at estimates of what 60m of sea-level rise means, for example -- they aren't going to obliterate the land-surface, Old Testament style. No Ark required.

There will be land. There will be rain. The land surface temperature in much of Eurasia, most of which will still be above sea-level, will support human, plant and animal life. I've no idea if there will be fish, but there will be mung beans. Humans existed in warm, and cold, climates before the industrial revolution, and everything we know about human adaptability tells us they will be able to procreate in the future.  

The interesting questions about climate change are around how many of us will survive, and whether we will kill ourselves entirely through other means (nuclear war, I guess. I don't think all humans are going to kill all other humans using small arms and conventional artillery, though a species that can elect Trump can do anything, I suppose).

The moral question around the former is rather dull, I think. "Should I carry out actions today that will lead to the death of billions in a century or so?", is, morally, a completely uninteresting question. We obscure it by arguments around agency ("Well, everyone else does so my actions won't change anything"), ignorance ("I don't know what to do"), wilful blindness ("The science is uncertain") or just plain denial (of the problem, not the science). Inaction now is particularly morally indefensible, given the ready availability of zero-carbon technologies across electricity, heating and industry. And cost is a nonsense. Everything is unaffordable, until done. Zero-sulphur fuel was considered an unaffordable nonsense only a few decades ago. Wind power is now cheaper than gas power. etc.

So, I think there is nothing interesting to say about the moral question of climate change mitigation. Even questions about "Who should pay?" are not particularly interesting or complex (the burden should obviously fall on those with the highest emissions, with some re-balancing for wealth inequality in society). The moral question about what we should do on adaptation and who should pay for that are, perhaps, far more interesting.

So, skimming over the question of how many humans will survive (which is more accurately described as "how many humans can the planet earth support as the global mean surface temperature rapidly increases, driving rapid changes in weather and climate?" to which the answer is "We don't know, and science is not even close to being able to tell us") we come to the question "Will humanity survive, or kill itself on the grounds that if 80% of us (say) are to go, we might as well take the remaining 20% with us)?"

No answers available. (Well, 2 answers available, "yes" and "no". Take your pick.) I'd just observe that survival is clearly not given. We look, as always, to the Zombie genre -- comics and films -- for answers. And the answers are bleak. In both the films of Romero, and The Walking Dead comics, humans are at least, if not more, a threat to each other than zombies. The insanity -- and inanity -- of the present day anti-mask movement does not suggest that humanity, when truly threatened by rapid climate change impinging upon food production and/or access to potable water, will pull together to survive.

And on that happy note, I shall stop.  

Happy New Year!

So, as we say goodbye to 2021, I think we can all agree that it was an interesting year, for those of us which survived it. I shall not say that "I hope the worst is behind us", as we all said that at the end of 2020, and look how that turned out. Is "pray for swift and silent death" a little too ... pessimistic? It's certainly been a good year for optimists, though I am personally pleased that the Home Secretaries attempts to make "naysaying" and "wokeness" capital crimes was dismissed by the Courts. "More power the Courts!" I say. Quietly. Very quietly, given the neighbours.

The clear Highlight of the year for us was F's offer of a place at Hogwart's School of Witchcraft & Wizardry which we accepted -- rather rashly as it turned out -- without a second though. We probably should have read to Ofsted report. Anyway, to cut a long story short, following the incident with the troll in the girl's toilets, F will not be returning to Hogwart's in the spring term. He feels that he will be far safer, and better supported by the teachers, at Smeltings. For legal reasons I won't say more, except to say that a settlement has been reached. 

He remains penfriends with a number of the children he met in September, so we've kept the owl. Which has also solved the mouse problem in our kitchen.

We finally made progress on getting the house fixed up. We've chosen a delightful hand-made sustainable oak (from the carefully managed Bialowieza forest in Poland) kitchen, with spring loaded doors, each using a different grain on each door to represent the cupboard contents. The changes in diet we've seen in the UK over the last 12 months necessitated some last minute design changes -- the salad section is obviously totally redundant now! -- and we've had to incorporate additional cupboards for stocking-piling tinned 'ham'. Personally I found ripping the existing kitchen out to be cathartic, and also helpful, as by burning the old cupboards we were able to heat out home this winter -- and how many of us can say that!? -- but unfortunately our new kitchen is not yet installed, as it is caught up in the queue for Dover. Latest online updates -- yes! we do get signal from time-to-time!! -- suggest it's reached in the Belgian border, so we hope to have it installed in the spring. (That's Civil Service "in the spring", not actual "spring". i.e. by September).

I'm adjusting to life as a supported of a Championship side very well thank you. I have high hopes for a top six finish for Arsenal this season, though I confess the re-signing of Ozil, followed by his Siberian exile, did rather confuse me. Rumours are that he's busy chopping firewood to keep the boiler running at the Emirates, though I can't see how they are managing to smuggle the logs across the blockade.

Shame about cricket, but at least we have the memories. 

It's been a tiring year, professionally. I wasn't expecting to get involved in vaccine roll-out at the start of the year, but by October, with things as they were, I was happy to roll up my sleeves and get stuck in. I've been spending most evenings at the office -- nothing to do with the shell o the kitchen! K is totally fine and very understanding!!! -- refining the Gantt chart. Obviously the Civil Service Oath of Allegiance and Servitude (which replaced the antiquated and much mocked "Civil Service Code" in February) prevents me from saying too much (though oddly not from driving around the country with my family during the ongoing pandemic -- it is odd that they felt the explicit need to write that in -- as if we could afford the fuel!) but pretty sure we've cracked it now. Granny will be done by the end of January and we'll all be there by the summer. (See above)

K took a career break this year, in order to focus on the things that really matter for us all. Largely food production. Her beautiful turnips are an example to us all.

I think J has enjoyed the year most of all. The shortened school-terms, excellent weather (the spring rainfall led to the best growing season in recent memory around here, though obviously we feel bad for the people of Gloucester and hope that they can find somewhere -- not here!! London is full!!! -- to settle soon) and time spent on the land really chimed with his desire to get away from 'book learning' and get his fingers dirty. Odd, isn't it? A year ago, I had vain hopes that he might make it as a junior solicitor in a small provincial firm, and now look at him! He'll out-earn us all!!

F. now wants to be a lorry driver when he grows up. I'm worried about the hours, but it's better than "wizard" I guess.

I'd love to write more, but the battery is running low, and I can only really charge the thing on a Friday, when my boss takes the afternoon off and I can sneak into her office and plug this in. Electricity theft is frowned upon -- pretty deeply actually -- in the office these days, but everyone does it. Which does seem fair, given the public pay position. Still, the food boxes are very generous and the trip home is reasonably safe so long as you pedal fast and don't stop to help any strangers.

I have to say, I'm really looking forward to 2022. Carrie Symonds is a massive improvement on Starmer, and I think she'll really give Mr Gove a run for his money. (We aren't allowed to talk about the former PM, but I do wonder if they'll ever get to the bottom of it...). There's an awful lot to look forward too, I think! Keep yer chin up, as Gareth Southgate would say. Shame about Gareth...     

Stay well! Don't waste food!! A brighter future awaits!!!

PS - Does anyone know anyone who wants to buy any "Galleons"? We will accept Pounds Sterling only in return.